Analyzing the opinions of Canadians on the impacts of electric vehicles

Electric vehicles (EVs) are often promoted as a solution to the impacts of transport on the climate since their GHG emissions are generally less than those of Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles (ICEVs). Considering only tail-pipe emissions, EVs are zero-emission vehicles and are being promoted as a sustainable mode. Hence, many likely believe that having no tail-pipe emissions makes EVs a robust solution to climate change. However, in the current context, EVs do not have significantly lower life-cycle GHG emissions than ICEVs. Further, EVs do not address many other externalities of vehicle use, such as health impacts or congestion. As the running costs of EVs are less than ICEVs, people would likely drive them more, which could exacerbate various externalities. This research examines the opinions of Canadians with driver’s licenses concerning such questions. It further examines how such beliefs might influence decisions to purchase an EV. That analysis details whether it would replace an ICEV or be an additional vehicle and what influences those outcomes. Hence, a survey was conducted, and an interpretable machine learning method was developed. The results suggest that 18.7% (95% confidence intervals: 17.1%–20.5%) of Canadians anticipate driving more due to the lower cost per kilometer of driving an EV. Moreover, the potential EV purchasers are more likely to drive more, which could exacerbate various externalities. Those worried about climate change are also more likely to drive more if they own EVs. The results suggest problems related to a rebound effect, where behavioral reactions could create other problems.

Mots clés

• Electric vehicle
• ensemble learning
• environmental problems
• individual beliefs