Quel est le potentiel des véhicules électriques pour atteindre les cibles de réduction de gaz à effet de serre ? Le cas de Montréal, Canada

Electric vehicles have a great potential to reduce tailpipe greenhouse gas emissions in the province of Quebec. In this region, electricity is producted from hydropower. Thus, carbon intensity of electricity in Quebec is very low. That would considerably reduce transport-based emissions of such vehicles. However, it is not clear how many vehicles would need to change to electric in order to meet specific reduction targets. As a matter of fact, conventional vehicles' emissions per km are different, as well as how much they are used. This master's thesis aims to resolve this problem in the Greater Montreal region. The objective is to estimate variations in the number of vehicles in the fleet that would need to change to electric vehicles in order to achieve the provincial greenhouse gases emission reduction target of reducing 1990 CO2 emissions by 37.5% by 2030. To do this, Montreal's personal vehicle fleet in 2018 was first described. Then its direct emmissions were calculated to create a baseline. After that, five scenarios depicting changes in the Montreal fleet were studied with respect to reaching the provincial emission objective by 2030. The five scenarios are named random, efficient, optimistic, inefficient, pessimistic. Finally, Electric vehicle sales from previous years were used to estimate the increase in numbers of electric vehicles on the roads in the province and in the Greater Montreal region, to compare these values to the ones calculated by the five scenarios. Forecasts and objectives by some stakeholders like the Quebec's electric vehicles association or the government of Quebec were also added to this data.