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Quel est le potentiel des véhicules électriques pour atteindre les cibles de réduction de gaz à effet de serre ? Le cas de Montréal, Canada

Pierre Christophe Marc Laffont

Master's thesis (2021)

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Abstract

Electric vehicles have a great potential to reduce tailpipe greenhouse gas emissions in the province of Quebec. In this region, electricity is producted from hydropower. Thus, carbon intensity of electricity in Quebec is very low. That would considerably reduce transport-based emissions of such vehicles. However, it is not clear how many vehicles would need to change to electric in order to meet specific reduction targets. As a matter of fact, conventional vehicles' emissions per km are different, as well as how much they are used. This master's thesis aims to resolve this problem in the Greater Montreal region. The objective is to estimate variations in the number of vehicles in the fleet that would need to change to electric vehicles in order to achieve the provincial greenhouse gases emission reduction target of reducing 1990 CO2 emissions by 37.5% by 2030. To do this, Montreal's personal vehicle fleet in 2018 was first described. Then its direct emmissions were calculated to create a baseline. After that, five scenarios depicting changes in the Montreal fleet were studied with respect to reaching the provincial emission objective by 2030. The five scenarios are named random, efficient, optimistic, inefficient, pessimistic. Finally, Electric vehicle sales from previous years were used to estimate the increase in numbers of electric vehicles on the roads in the province and in the Greater Montreal region, to compare these values to the ones calculated by the five scenarios. Forecasts and objectives by some stakeholders like the Quebec's electric vehicles association or the government of Quebec were also added to this data.

Résumé

Les véhicules électriques représentent un potentiel élevé de réduction des émissions directes de gaz à effet de serre (GES) par les véhicules au Québec. En effet, l'électricité dans cette province est produite en grande partie grâce à l'énergie hydraulique. Les émissions de GES liés à cette production sont très basses, ce qui diminuerait l'impact environnemental lié à la circulation de ces véhicules sur les routes québécoises. Cependant, il est difficile de prévoir combien de remplacements de véhicules conventionnels (VC) par des véhicules électriques (VE) seraient nécessaires pour atteindre une certaine cible de réduction des émissions. En effet, les émissions moyennes au km des VC au Québec sont différentes, ainsi que leurs utilisations. Ce mémoire a pour but de répondre à ce problème en s'intéressant à la région du Grand Montréal. L'objectif est de calculer selon différents scénarios quels véhicules devraient être remplacés par des VE pour atteindre la cible de réduction des GES de 37,5% par rapport aux niveaux de 1990 d'ici 2030.

Department: Department of Civil, Geological and Mining Engineering
Program: Génie civil
Academic/Research Directors: Owen Waygood and Zachary Patterson
PolyPublie URL: https://publications.polymtl.ca/9188/
Institution: Polytechnique Montréal
Date Deposited: 11 Nov 2021 08:00
Last Modified: 01 Oct 2024 11:05
Cite in APA 7: Laffont, P. C. M. (2021). Quel est le potentiel des véhicules électriques pour atteindre les cibles de réduction de gaz à effet de serre ? Le cas de Montréal, Canada [Master's thesis, Polytechnique Montréal]. PolyPublie. https://publications.polymtl.ca/9188/

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