A Multi-stage methodology for long-term open-pit mine production planning under ore grade uncertainty

The strategic planning of open pit operations defines the best strategy for extraction of the mineral deposit to maximize the net present value. The process of strategic planning must deal with several sources of uncertainty; therefore, many authors have proposed models to incorporate it at each of its stages: Computation of the ultimate pit, optimization of pushbacks, and production scheduling. However, most works address it at each level independently, with few aiming at the whole process. In this work, we propose a methodology based on new mathematical optimization models and the application of conditional simulation of the deposit for addressing the geological uncertainty at all stages. We test the method in a real case study and evaluate whether incorporating uncertainty increases the quality of the solutions. Moreover, we benefit from our integrated framework to evaluate the relative impact of uncertainty at each stage. This could be used by decision-makers as a guide for detecting risks and focusing efforts.