Development of a bottom-up white-box building stock energy model for single-family dwellings

A new bottom-up white-box building stock energy modelling approach is presented in this paper. The model is a physics simulation-based stock model that can be used to compare the base case building stock with technological variations for comparative assessments. The model accuracy is compared to known stock data for a variety of categories, including end-use, energy source and building type. The model predicts the energy use of a building stock in a Canadian region with good agreement across all categories, with the total energy consumption of the model within 1.5% of the real stock energy use. Our analysis shows that modelling a sufficiently large sample of stock is required to reduce the expected deviation for lesser-represented portions of the stock. A case study illustrates how the model can be applied to compare different heating system distributions, in order to assess their impact on greenhouse gas emissions and peak electricity demand.

Mots clés

Residential, building stock energy model, bottom-up, white-box, greenhouse gas emissions