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Forecasting future needs and optimal allocation of medical residency positions: the Emilia-Romagna Region case study

Francesca Senese, Paolo Tubertini, Angelina Mazzocchetti, Andrea Lodi, Corrado Ruozi and Roberto Grilli

Article (2015)

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OBJECTIVES: Italian regional health authorities annually negotiate the number of residency grants to be financed by the National government and the number and mix of supplementary grants to be funded by the regional budget. This study provides regional decision-makers with a requirement model to forecast the future demand of specialists at the regional level. METHODS: We have developed a system dynamics (SD) model that projects the evolution of the supply of medical specialists and three demand scenarios across the planning horizon (2030). Demand scenarios account for different drivers: demography, service utilization rates (ambulatory care and hospital discharges) and hospital beds. Based on the SD outputs (occupational and training gaps), a mixed integer programming (MIP) model computes potentially effective assignments of medical specialization grants for each year of the projection. RESULTS: To simulate the allocation of grants, we have compared how regional and national grants can be managed in order to reduce future gaps with respect to current training patterns. The allocation of 25 supplementary grants per year does not appear as effective in reducing expected occupational gaps as the re-modulation of all regional training vacancies.

Uncontrolled Keywords

Financing, Government; Forecasting; Health Services Needs and Demand; Humans; Internship and Residency/economics; Italy; Models, Theoretical; Physicians/supply & distribution; Regional Health Planning; Specialization; Training Support

Subjects: 2950 Applied mathematics > 2960 Mathematical modelling
Department: Department of Mathematics and Industrial Engineering
PolyPublie URL: https://publications.polymtl.ca/5132/
Journal Title: Human Resources for Health volume (vol. 13, no. 1)
Publisher: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1186/1478-4491-13-7
Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1186/1478-4491-13-7
Date Deposited: 08 Apr 2022 11:19
Last Modified: 08 Apr 2024 14:31
Cite in APA 7: Senese, F., Tubertini, P., Mazzocchetti, A., Lodi, A., Ruozi, C., & Grilli, R. (2015). Forecasting future needs and optimal allocation of medical residency positions: the Emilia-Romagna Region case study. Human Resources for Health volume, 13(1), 7. https://doi.org/10.1186/1478-4491-13-7


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