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1.5 °C carbon budget dependent on carbon cycle uncertainty and future non-CO₂ forcing

Nadine Mengis, Antti-Ilari Partanen, Jonathan Jalbert and H. Damon Matthews

Article (2018)

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Abstract

Estimates of the 1.5 degrees C carbon budget vary widely among recent studies, emphasizing the need to better understand and quantify key sources of uncertainty. Here we quantify the impact of carbon cycle uncertainty and non-CO2 forcing on the 1.5 degrees C carbon budget in the context of a prescribed 1.5 degrees C temperature stabilization scenario. We use Bayes theorem to weight members of a perturbed parameter ensemble with varying land and ocean carbon uptake, to derive an estimate for the fossil fuel (FF) carbon budget of 469 PgC since 1850, with a 95% likelihood range of (411,528) PgC. CO2 emissions from land-use change (LUC) add about 230 PgC. Our best estimate of the total (FF + LUC) carbon budget for 1.5 degrees C is therefore 699 PgC, which corresponds to about 11 years of current emissions. Non-CO2 greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions represent equivalent cumulative CO2 emissions of about 510 PgC and -180 PgC for 1.5 degrees C, respectively. The increased LUC, high non-CO2 emissions and decreased aerosols in our scenario, cause the long-term FF carbon budget to decrease following temperature stabilization. In this scenario, negative emissions would be required to compensate not only for the increasing non-CO2 climate forcing, but also for the declining natural carbon sinks.

Subjects: 3000 Statistics and probability > 3000 Statistics and probability
3000 Statistics and probability > 3004 Applied statistics
Department: Department of Mathematics and Industrial Engineering
Funders: Horizon Postdoctoral Fellowships of Concordia University, Collaborative Research and Training Experience Program (CREATE), Fonds de recherche du Quebec - Nature et technologies, Concordia Institute for Water, Energy and Sustainable Systems (CIWESS), Academy of Finland
Grant number: 200414, 308365
PolyPublie URL: https://publications.polymtl.ca/5029/
Journal Title: Scientific Reports (vol. 8, no. 1)
Publisher: Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-018-24241-1
Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-24241-1
Date Deposited: 13 Jan 2022 12:11
Last Modified: 28 Sep 2024 17:15
Cite in APA 7: Mengis, N., Partanen, A.-I., Jalbert, J., & Matthews, H. D. (2018). 1.5 °C carbon budget dependent on carbon cycle uncertainty and future non-CO₂ forcing. Scientific Reports, 8(1), 5831 (7 pages). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-24241-1

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