Nadine Mengis, Antti-Ilari Partanen, Jonathan Jalbert et H. Damon Matthews
Article de revue (2018)
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Abstract
Estimates of the 1.5 degrees C carbon budget vary widely among recent studies, emphasizing the need to better understand and quantify key sources of uncertainty. Here we quantify the impact of carbon cycle uncertainty and non-CO2 forcing on the 1.5 degrees C carbon budget in the context of a prescribed 1.5 degrees C temperature stabilization scenario. We use Bayes theorem to weight members of a perturbed parameter ensemble with varying land and ocean carbon uptake, to derive an estimate for the fossil fuel (FF) carbon budget of 469 PgC since 1850, with a 95% likelihood range of (411,528) PgC. CO2 emissions from land-use change (LUC) add about 230 PgC. Our best estimate of the total (FF + LUC) carbon budget for 1.5 degrees C is therefore 699 PgC, which corresponds to about 11 years of current emissions. Non-CO2 greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions represent equivalent cumulative CO2 emissions of about 510 PgC and -180 PgC for 1.5 degrees C, respectively. The increased LUC, high non-CO2 emissions and decreased aerosols in our scenario, cause the long-term FF carbon budget to decrease following temperature stabilization. In this scenario, negative emissions would be required to compensate not only for the increasing non-CO2 climate forcing, but also for the declining natural carbon sinks.
Sujet(s): |
3000 Statistique et probabilité > 3000 Statistique et probabilité 3000 Statistique et probabilité > 3004 Statistique appliquée |
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Département: | Département de mathématiques et de génie industriel |
Organismes subventionnaires: | Horizon Postdoctoral Fellowships of Concordia University, Collaborative Research and Training Experience Program (CREATE), Fonds de recherche du Quebec - Nature et technologies, Concordia Institute for Water, Energy and Sustainable Systems (CIWESS), Academy of Finland |
Numéro de subvention: | 200414, 308365 |
URL de PolyPublie: | https://publications.polymtl.ca/5029/ |
Titre de la revue: | Scientific Reports (vol. 8, no 1) |
Maison d'édition: | Nature |
DOI: | 10.1038/s41598-018-24241-1 |
URL officielle: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-24241-1 |
Date du dépôt: | 13 janv. 2022 12:11 |
Dernière modification: | 07 avr. 2024 20:23 |
Citer en APA 7: | Mengis, N., Partanen, A.-I., Jalbert, J., & Matthews, H. D. (2018). 1.5 °C carbon budget dependent on carbon cycle uncertainty and future non-CO₂ forcing. Scientific Reports, 8(1), 5831 (7 pages). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-24241-1 |
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