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Modeling and forecasting the peak flows of a river

Mario Lefebvre

Article (2002)

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Cite this document: Lefebvre, M. (2002). Modeling and forecasting the peak flows of a river. Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 8(6), p. 553-562. doi:10.1080/1024123021000061935
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Abstract

A stochastic model is found for the value of the peak flows of the Mistassibi river in Quebec, Canada, when the river is in spate. Next, the objective is to forecast the value of the coming peak flow about four days in advance, when the flow begins to show a marked increase. Both the stochastic model proposed in the paper and a model based on linear regression are used to produce the forecasts. The quality of the forecasts is assessed by considering the standard errors and the peak criterion. The forecasts are much more accurate than those obtained by taking the mean value of the previous peak flows.

Uncontrolled Keywords

Stochastic modeling; Lognormal distribution; Linear regression; Correlation coefficient; Peak criterion; Hydrology; Science; Mathematics; General and Civil Engineering; Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General); TA1-2040; Technology and Engineering; Mathematics; Stochastic modeling; Lognormal distribution; Linear regression; Correlation coefficient; Peak criterion; Hydrology; QA1-939; Mathematics and Statistics; Technology

Open Access document in PolyPublie
Subjects: 2950 Mathématiques appliquées > 2950 Mathématiques appliquées
2950 Mathématiques appliquées > 2960 Modélisation mathématique
4500 Hydrologie > 4500 Hydrologie
Department: Département de mathématiques et de génie industriel
Research Center: Non applicable
Funders: CRSNG/NSERC
Date Deposited: 06 Nov 2018 13:27
Last Modified: 07 Nov 2018 01:20
PolyPublie URL: https://publications.polymtl.ca/3378/
Document issued by the official publisher
Journal Title: Mathematical Problems in Engineering (vol. 8, no. 6)
Publisher: Hindawi
Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1080/1024123021000061935

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