Fueling tomorrow: scenario planning for the future of gas stations

Transport electrification is reshaping the service infrastructures that mediate everyday mobility, yet most electrification scenario studies remain macrolevel and offer limited insight into how incumbent forecourt (gas-station) networks can adapt under deep uncertainty. This study recenters gas stations as sociotechnical transition actors and develops a traceable, design-integrated scenario approach to derive place-based transition pathways. Using a Canadian case (with emphasis on Quebec), we combine field observation and hierarchical task analysis with a PESTEL horizon scan (patents, literature, and policy) and a two-round Delphi with nine experts. A QFD-inspired impact matrix and expert appraisal are used to construct and validate 12 prospective service-use scenarios across urban, highway, and rural/outskirt contexts. Results indicate three recurring pathway archetypes: (1) urban charging embedded in commercial/parking ecosystems, (2) highway destination-style multi-service hubs requiring high-CAPEX energy and service orchestration, and (3) rural/outskirt nodes where on-site generation and prosumer participation plausibly complement conventional station roles. Across scenarios, feasibility is shaped by permitting and interconnection timelines, grid capacity constraints, land-use and safety requirements, user acceptance, and utilization-sensitive economics. The scenario set yields capability and staging logics that support policy-industry coordination and roadmapping/portfolio decisions during prolonged coexistence of liquid-fuel and electric infrastructures.