Assessing the impact of climate change on an ungauged watershed in the Congo River Basin

This study assesses the impact of climate change on streamflow characteristics in the Lualaba River Basin (LRB), an important yet ungauged watershed in the Congo River Basin. Two conceptual hydrological models, HBV-MTL and GR4J, were calibrated using the reanalysis datasets and outputs of Generalized Circulation Models (GCMs) under CMIP6 during the historical period. The hydrological models were fed with outputs of GCMs under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) 2-45 and 5-85, moderate- and high-radiative future scenarios. The results demonstrate that hydrological models successfully simulate observed streamflow, but their performance varies significantly with the choice of climate data and model structure. Interannual streamflow (Q) percentiles (10, 50, 90) were used to describe flow conditions under future climate. Q10 is projected to increase by 33% under SSP2-45 and 44% under SSP5-85, suggesting higher flow conditions that are exceeded 90% of the time. Q50 is also expected to rise by almost the same rate. However, a considerably higher Q90 is projected to increase by 56% under the moderate- and 80% under the high-radiative scenario. These indicate the overall higher water availability in this watershed to be used for energy and food production and the need for flood risk management.

Mots clés

climate change impact; hydrological modelling; Lualaba River Basin; streamflow projections; reanalysis datasets; water resource management