Total Capital Investment of plastic recycling plants correlates with energy losses and capacity

Plastic pollution is a generational problem, and stakeholders are turning to chemical recycling as a potential solution. However, decision-makers necessitate quick and reliable capital investment estimations to evaluate innovative technologies, especially in the early project stage, when limited historical data are available. To address this need, we built a database of 160+ chemical recycling plants, querying for nominal capacity, year and place of construction, total capital investment (TCI), number of long-term jobs and opportunity of subsidies. Then, we compared conventional association of the advancement of cost engineering AACE class 5 estimation methods, with literature estimates, and commercial capital expenditure confidence intervals for pyrolysis, gasification, solvolysis, and selective dissolution. We demonstrate the unreliability of classic methods, and we propose ballpark correlations based on the plant capacity, or the energy loss. Chemical recycling plants suffer from poor economy of scale (with current technologies), and capacity is not always the best indicator for TCI estimation. Pyrolysis and gasification are energy-driven technologies, and their TCI correlates very well (R²=0.91–0.92) with the total energy losses. Solvolysis and selective dissolution, instead, are at an earlier development stage, so cost engineers or researchers will have to accept less certain TCI vs capacity (R²=0.60).