Environmental and health impacts of transportation and land use scenarios in 2061

OPS 58: Predictors and impact of active travel, Room 210, Floor 2, August 28, 2019, 10:30 AM - 12:00 PM Modeling impacts of land use and transportation over long-term horizons offers possibilities to assess effects of societal trends that may affect mobility like urban sprawl. We defined two scenarios for 2061 for the Greater Montreal: a Business As Usual (BAU) and an Ideal scenario with urban densification and reductions in car share (76% to 62% in suburbs; 55% to 34% in urban areas). We aimed to compare numbers of trips and distances by transport mode, air pollution and health impacts of scenarios. Comparisons between urban areas and suburbs, between 2031 and 2061, and sensitivity analyses were performed. We estimated the 2061 population in 87 municipalities using the 2008 Origin-Destination survey, the demographic model ES-3 and Quebec population projections for 2031 and 2061. 2031 trips (from a mode choice model) and distances were used to estimate those of 2061. Emissions of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and carbon dioxide (CO2) were modelled with the US EPA MOVE model, and concentrations of NO2 using CALPUFF. Negative impacts of NO2, road traumas, and health benefits of active transportation were summarized with disability adjusted life years (DALY). Walking and Public Transit (PT) use and corresponding distances walked in 2061 were >70% higher for the Ideal scenario vs the BAU, while car share and distances were <40% lower. NO2 levels were slightly lower in the Ideal scenario compared to the BAU, but always higher in the urban core. Impacts differed between urban areas and the suburbs but globally, the Ideal scenario reduced the impacts of the 2061 BAU by 34% DALY. % of car and PT trips were similar for the 2031 and 2061 BAU scenarios but kms travelled by car, CO2 and NO2 increased, due to increased populations. Drastic urban sprawl impediment and measures to decrease car share appear necessary to substantially reduce impacts of transportation.